The U.S. Intelligence Community's Experience in Assessing National Security Threats for Enhancing the Efficiency of Ukraine's National Threat and Risk Assessment System
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33445/psssj.2025.6.2.5Keywords:
national security, threats, risk assessment, intelligence, special services, USA, experience, national resilienceAbstract
The article examines the experience of the U.S. intelligence community in assessing national security threats and the possibilities of its application in Ukraine. The role and place of U.S. intelligence agencies in the system of identifying and analyzing current threats are determined. It is clarified that in modern conditions, given Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine, the implementation of the best global approaches to threat assessment is extremely relevant. The regulatory documents, strategic approaches, and practical measures used by the U.S. intelligence community to identify dangers and assess national security risks are analyzed. Directions for implementing the American experience to improve the efficiency of Ukraine's national threat and risk assessment system are proposed.
Downloads
References
Abramov, V.I., Sytnyk, H.P., Smolianiuk, V.F., et al. (2016). Hlobalna ta natsionalna bezpeka [Global and national security] / Edited by H.P. Sytnyk. Kyiv, NADU. 784 p.
Aleksandrov, O. (2015). Nova Stratehiia natsionalnoi bezpeky Polshchi – vidpovid na yevropeiski vyklyky ta zahrozy сьогодення [New National Security Strategy of Poland – a response to European challenges and threats of today]. Stratehichni priorytety, 1(34), 131–138.
Bila knyha. Sluzhba zovnishnoi rozvidky Ukrainy [White Paper. Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine]. (2021). Kyiv, SZRU. 72 p. Available at: https://szru.gov.ua/download/white-book/WB-2021.pdf.
Burns, V. Dzh. (2024). Shpyhunstvo ta derzhavne upravlinnia: transformatsiia TsRU v epokhu konkurentsii [Espionage and Public Administration: The Transformation of the CIA in an Era of Competition]. National Institute for Strategic Studies, 27.02.2024. Available at: https://niss.gov.ua/news/statti/shpyhunstvo-ta-derzhavne-upravlinnya-transformatsiya-tsru-v-epokhu-konkurentsiyi.
Horbulin, V.P., & Kachynskyi, A.B. (2010). Stratehichne planuvannia: vyrishennia problem natsionalnoi bezpeky [Strategic planning: solving national security problems]. Kyiv, NISS. 288 p.
Kachynskyi, A.B. (2013). Indykatory natsionalnoi bezpeky: vyznachennia ta zastosuvannia yikh hranychnykh znachen [Indicators of national security: definition and application of their limit values]: monograph. Kyiv, NISS. 232 p.
Kolodii, A. (2004). Natsionalna yednist i patriotism yak chynnyky natsionalnoi bezpeky [National unity and patriotism as factors of national security]. Natsionalna bezpeka Ukrainy: Zbirnyk materialiv konferentsii ukrainskykh vypusknykiv prohram naukovoho stazhuvannia u SShA, 25–30.
Kormych, L.I. (2021). Harantii natsionalnoi bezpeky Ukrainy v yevropeiskomu konteksti [Guarantees of national security of Ukraine in the European context]. National Institute for Strategic Studies. Available at: https://niss.gov.ua/doslidzhennya/mizhnarodni-vidnosyny/garantiyi-nacionalnoi-bezpeki-ukrainy-v-ievropejskomu-konteksti.
Kuropiatnyk, O. (2015). Eskalatsiia yadernoho protystoiannia SShA ta Rosii u konteksti rosiisko-ukrainskoi viiny: dopovid [Escalation of nuclear confrontation between the USA and Russia in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war: report]. Kyiv, Maidan of Foreign Affairs, June 2015. 41 p.
On Intelligence: Law of Ukraine of 17.09.2020 No. 912-IX. Vidomosti Verkhovnoi Rady, 5 (2021).
On National Security of Ukraine: Law of Ukraine of 21.06.2018 No. 2469-VIII (as amended by Law No. 2849-IX of 13.12.2022). Available at: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2469-19#Text.
Lipkan, V.A. (2003). Poniattya systemy zabezpechennia natsionalnoi bezpeky Ukrainy [The concept of the national security system of Ukraine]. Pravo i Bezpeka, 2(4), 84–89. Available at: http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/Pib_2003_2_4_14.
Mizhnarodni vidnosyny ta polityka Ukrainy [International relations and politics of Ukraine] (collection of materials of NUOU named after I. Chernyakhovsky). (2020). Kyiv. 256 p.
National Security Strategy of Ukraine, approved by Decree of the President of Ukraine No. 287/2015 of May 26, 2015. Available at: https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/2872015-19070.
Natsionalna systema identyfikatsii zahroz i nebezpek ta otsinky ryzykiv (THIRA): ohliad ta metodolohiia [National Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA): overview and methodology]. NISS, 25.07.2019. Available at: https://cip.gov.ua/services/cm/api/attachment/download?id=60358 (pdf).
Novikova, O., & Pankova, O. (2021). Osoblyvosti formuvannia ta realizatsii stratehichnykh priorytetiv zabezpechennia bezpeky ta rozvytku Ukrainy i Respubliky Polshcha [Features of the Formation and Implementation of Strategic Priorities for Ensuring the Security and Development of Ukraine and the Republic of Poland]. Ekonomika – Upravlinnia – Innovatsii, 2, 127–136. Available at: https://dspace.uni.lodz.pl/xmlui/handle/11089/41922.
Reznikova, O.O. (2013). Mizhnarodne bezpekove seredovyshche: vyklyky i zahrozy natsionalnii bezpetsi Ukrainy [International Security Environment: Challenges and Threats to National Security of Ukraine]. Kyiv, NUOU. 56 p.
Reznikova, O.O. (2018). Zabezpechennia natsionalnoi bezpeky i natsionalnoi stiikosti: spilni rysy i vidminnosti [Ensuring national security and national resilience: common features and differences]. Visnyk Lvivskoho universytetu. Seriia filosofsko-politolohichni studii, 19, 170–175.
Reznikova, O.O. (2022). Stratehichnyi analiz bezpekovoho seredovyshcha Ukrainy [Strategic analysis of the security environment of Ukraine]. National Institute for Strategic Studies, 14.01.2022. Available at: https://niss.gov.ua/news/statti/stratehichnyy-analiz-bezpekovoho-seredovyshcha-ukrayiny.
Reznikova, O.O., Voitovskyi, K.Ye., & Lepikhov, A.V. (2020). Natsionalni systemy otsiniuvannia ryzykiv i zahroz: krashchi svitovi praktyky, novi mozhlyvosti dlia Ukrainy: analitychna dopovid [National systems for assessing risks and threats: best world practices, new opportunities for Ukraine: analytical report]. Kyiv, NISS. 84 p.
Stan ta perspektyvy stratehichnoho partnerstva Polshchi ta Ukrainy: analitychna dopovid [State and prospects of the strategic partnership between Poland and Ukraine: analytical report] (№ MEiN/2021). (2021). Warsaw–Kyiv. 112 p.
Strategia Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej [National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland] of May 12, 2020 / President of Poland A. Duda. Warsaw, 2020. Available at: http://www.bbn.gov.pl/ftp/SBN%20RP.pdf.
Strategia Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej [National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland]. (2014). Warszawa, Biuro Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego. 135 p. Available at: http://www.bbn.gov.pl/ftp/SBN%20RP.pdf (in Polish).
Strategic Concept for the Defence and Security of the Members of NATO. (2010). Available at: http://www.nato.int/cps/uk/natohq/topics_56626.htm.
Strategy of Development of the National Security System of the Republic of Poland – 2022. (2022). Warsaw: National Security Bureau. 48 p.
U.S. National Security Strategy and Defense Strategy of October 27, 2022. Available at: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/trecms/pdf/AD1183514 (accessed: 12.06.2025).
Vorona, O.I. (2019). Systema analizu ryzykiv u sferi natsionalnoi bezpeky: teoriia i praktyka [Risk analysis system in the field of national security: theory and practice]. Kyiv, NISS. 92 p.
Yatsiuk, P.F. (2021). Systema otsiniuvannia zahroz natsionalnii bezpetsi [System for assessing threats to national security]: materials of a scientific seminar. Kyiv, NUOU.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Andrii Stroiev

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The authors agree with the following conditions:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication (Download agreement) with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors have the right to complete individual additional agreements for the non-exclusive spreading of the journal’s published version of the work (for example, to post work in the electronic repository of the institution or to publish it as part of a monograph), with the reference to the first publication of the work in this journal.
3. Journal’s politics allows and encourages the placement on the Internet (for example, in the repositories of institutions, personal websites, SSRN, ResearchGate, MPRA, SSOAR, etc.) manuscript of the work by the authors, before and during the process of viewing it by this journal, because it can lead to a productive research discussion and positively affect the efficiency and dynamics of citing the published work (see The Effect of Open Access).