Changes in the Foreign Policy of the Federal Republic of Germany in the Context of the Russian-Ukrainian War

Abstract

The article examines the transformation of Germany’s foreign and security policy after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The research aims to determine whether the Zeitenwende announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz constitutes a complete reorientation of the Federal Republic of Germany’s (FRG) foreign policy or an adaptive modification within its historical continuity.

The study applies a qualitative analytical approach based on Charles Hermann’s model of foreign policy change, complemented by the theoretical interpretations of Patrick Mello and Tobias Bunde. Methods of document and discourse analysis are used to examine official strategies (e.g., National Security Strategy of Germany, 2023), policy speeches, party programs, and expert publications.

The research identifies profound structural changes in the FRG’s defense and energy policies, the redefinition of its international role as a guarantor of European security, and the partial abandonment of long-standing foreign policy paradigms such as Wandel durch Handel. Despite these shifts, the Zeitenwende remains an ongoing process rather than a completed reorientation.

The findings contribute to the debate on foreign policy adaptation versus transformation under systemic shocks, refining Hermann’s model in the context of democratic states.

The study offers insights for European policy-makers regarding strategic autonomy and leadership in a post-American security order.

This research provides one of the first comprehensive assessments of Germany’s Zeitenwende through a structured theoretical lens, linking conceptual change with empirical political developments.